{"id":1318,"date":"2012-01-20T08:16:19","date_gmt":"2012-01-20T08:16:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.renando.com\/blog\/?p=1318"},"modified":"2021-01-15T22:10:24","modified_gmt":"2021-01-15T22:10:24","slug":"predicting-the-demise-of-the-compact-disc-life-lessons-from-throwing-out-my-cds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/2012\/01\/predicting-the-demise-of-the-compact-disc-life-lessons-from-throwing-out-my-cds\/","title":{"rendered":"Predicting the demise of the compact disc: Life lessons from throwing out my CDs"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Queensland floods forced a decision on what I should do with my music CDs. \u00a0Market projections suggest the medium only has a few years remaining before CDs go the way of cassettes and LPs. \u00a0When we look at what really matters in life, is that such a bad thing?<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5415\" alt=\"ThrowingMyCDsAway\" src=\"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/ThrowingMyCDsAway.jpg\" width=\"478\" height=\"640\" \/><br \/>\n<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>I have hundreds of CDs in boxes and folders from my radio DJ days.\u00a0 I ripped the CDs to MP3 a long time before downloading music was even a concept, so the only thought I give to the piles of plastic is when I have to grudgingly move them from one spot to another.\u00a0 On a continuum of annoyance to enjoyment, my CDs are an unrewarding hassle that is not so frequent as to force any real decision-making effort.<\/p>\n<p>This all changed with <a title=\"My Ipswich \/ Brisbane 2011 flood experience: Lose a house, gain perspective\" href=\"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/index.php\/2011\/01\/my-ipswich-and-brisbane-2011-flood-experience-lose-a-house-gain-perspective\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">the floods<\/a> when my box of CDs that had been transported across state and country received a thorough cleanse of river water.\u00a0 I am a busy guy and the task to sort and clean the discs has been low on the priority list.\u00a0 I would need to un-stick the CD inserts, wipe down the discs, clean the cases, and find some new dark hole into which they could once again be forgotten.<\/p>\n<p>Twelve months on, I finally get around to determining their fate.\u00a0 The Internet once again comes to my rescue in telling me whether my CDs are worth the effort.<\/p>\n<h2>CDs on the way out<\/h2>\n<p>If you believe the <a title=\"The REAL Death Of The Music Industry\" href=\"http:\/\/articles.businessinsider.com\/2011-02-18\/tech\/30052663_1_riaa-music-industry-cd-era\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">contentious reports from February 2011<\/a>, the music industry overall is in decline.\u00a0 Digital is on the rise but overall sales are down, a fact many attribute to easily accessed free music downloads or the growth of legitimate independent distribution channels.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5417\" alt=\"MusicIndustryTurnoverBainAnalysis\" src=\"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/MusicIndustryTurnoverBainAnalysis.jpg\" width=\"618\" height=\"437\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Within this shrinking economy, the <a title=\"30 Years Of Music Industry Change, In 30 Seconds Or Less...\" href=\"http:\/\/www.digitalmusicnews.com\/stories\/081611thirty\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">animation below from Digital Music News<\/a>\u00a0shows the changes in formats over the past 30 years.\u00a0 The growth and decline of the red CD portion is what caught my attention.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/7U6CJCYHDFM\" height=\"300\" width=\"400\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I put the percentages into a spreadsheet to see if the data could tell me anything else (as I do).\u00a0 Questions in my mind are: \u201cAt what point a major medium begins to decline?\u201d, \u201cHow soon before it starts to hit double-digit decline?\u201d, and \u201cWhat is the escalation slope of the rate of decline?\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The LP\/EP took two years to go double-digit decline, the cassette 5 years, and the CD four years.\u00a0 The CD looks to have stabilised its decline to an average loss of 11% per annum.\u00a0 Based on trends from LPs and cassettes, we should start seeing an escalation in decline slope in 2013 give or take a year.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-5418\" alt=\"MusicFormatDecline\" src=\"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/01\/MusicFormatDecline.jpg\" width=\"323\" height=\"644\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I do not see the CD going away tomorrow, but I also do not see anything that will reverse or slow the decline.\u00a0 The only question is how long the medium has left.\u00a0 Our ability to dictate technology trends has <a title=\"136 years of failed tech predictions\" href=\"http:\/\/www.techi.com\/2011\/05\/136-years-of-failed-tech-predictions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">proven to be hit and miss<\/a>.\u00a0 Predictions of a rapid decline in CDs have been unwarranted since being <a title=\"Business Matters: Don't Bury the CD Just Yet -- Study Predicts a Slow, Graceful Demise\" href=\"http:\/\/www.billboard.biz\/bbbiz\/industry\/record-labels\/business-matters-don-t-bury-the-cd-just-1005490122.story\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">declared in 2008<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>There will be some expediting factors.\u00a0 Car companies will <a title=\"Ford predicts the demise of the in-car CD player\" href=\"http:\/\/hexus.net\/ce\/news\/automotive\/31280-ford-predicts-demise-in-car-cd-player\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">stop having CD player as default in their vehicles<\/a>.\u00a0 Players such as Netflix encourage mediums through <a title=\"Time to Kiss the Compact Disc Goodbye (Thanks, Netflix!)\" href=\"http:\/\/techland.time.com\/2011\/09\/26\/time-to-kiss-the-compact-disc-goodbye-thanks-netflix\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">pricing one over another<\/a>.\u00a0 Major labels are said to <a title=\"CD-format to be abandoned by major labels by the end of 2012\" href=\"http:\/\/www.side-line.com\/news_comments.php?id=46980_0_2_0_C%20\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">soon abandon the medium<\/a>.\u00a0 This will <a title=\"Local music sellers see opportunity in CD's demise\" href=\"http:\/\/thechronicleherald.ca\/business\/34017-local-music-sellers-see-opportunity-cds-demise\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">benefit the independents for a short period<\/a>, but even they will succumb to limited hardware.\u00a0 Think walkmans or floppy disc drives.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, the last year or so has seen an increase in market share for LPs from 0.1% to 0.3%.\u00a0 I suspect enthusiasts would point to a resurgence.\u00a0 Rather, I suspect it is more a reflection of a niche market resilient to wider market forces.\u00a0 People who purchase LPs will do so regardless if the same music is available through pirated download.<\/p>\n<p>The <a title=\"CD or not CD? That is the question as industry types predict the demise of the compact disc by the end of 2012 (with video)\" href=\"http:\/\/www.nj.com\/mercer\/index.ssf\/2011\/12\/cd_or_not_cd_that_is_the_quest.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">interview below<\/a>\u00a0makes an interesting observation about the resiliency of the LP, highlighting the \u201cshared experience\u201d of the LP as compared to the individualistic nature of the cassette, CD and MP3 more prone to personal headphones.\u00a0 The record player was the centre piece of the room for people to talk about it, have relationship around it, and be social whereas the CD is isolated and impersonal.\u00a0 The CD, as the guy says, is just not \u201cfun\u201d.<\/p>\n<p><object id=\"flashObj\" width=\"400\" height=\"339\" classid=\"clsid:d27cdb6e-ae6d-11cf-96b8-444553540000\" codebase=\"http:\/\/download.macromedia.com\/pub\/shockwave\/cabs\/flash\/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0\"><param name=\"flashVars\" value=\"videoId=1309672079001&amp;playerID=652006414001&amp;playerKey=AQ~~,AAAAPmbRKWE~,ZrzAz5j5GCTRQVzCCcm6M_fZ5_tbmHKt&amp;domain=embed&amp;dynamicStreaming=true\" \/><param name=\"base\" value=\"http:\/\/admin.brightcove.com\" \/><param name=\"seamlesstabbing\" value=\"false\" \/><param name=\"allowFullScreen\" value=\"true\" \/><param name=\"swLiveConnect\" value=\"true\" \/><param name=\"allowScriptAccess\" value=\"always\" \/><param name=\"src\" value=\"http:\/\/c.brightcove.com\/services\/viewer\/federated_f9?isVid=1\" \/><param name=\"flashvars\" value=\"videoId=1309672079001&amp;playerID=652006414001&amp;playerKey=AQ~~,AAAAPmbRKWE~,ZrzAz5j5GCTRQVzCCcm6M_fZ5_tbmHKt&amp;domain=embed&amp;dynamicStreaming=true\" \/><param name=\"allowfullscreen\" value=\"true\" \/><param name=\"swliveconnect\" value=\"true\" \/><param name=\"allowscriptaccess\" value=\"always\" \/><param name=\"pluginspage\" value=\"http:\/\/www.macromedia.com\/shockwave\/download\/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash\" \/><embed id=\"flashObj\" width=\"400\" height=\"339\" type=\"application\/x-shockwave-flash\" src=\"http:\/\/c.brightcove.com\/services\/viewer\/federated_f9?isVid=1\" flashVars=\"videoId=1309672079001&amp;playerID=652006414001&amp;playerKey=AQ~~,AAAAPmbRKWE~,ZrzAz5j5GCTRQVzCCcm6M_fZ5_tbmHKt&amp;domain=embed&amp;dynamicStreaming=true\" base=\"http:\/\/admin.brightcove.com\" seamlesstabbing=\"false\" allowFullScreen=\"true\" swLiveConnect=\"true\" allowScriptAccess=\"always\" flashvars=\"videoId=1309672079001&amp;playerID=652006414001&amp;playerKey=AQ~~,AAAAPmbRKWE~,ZrzAz5j5GCTRQVzCCcm6M_fZ5_tbmHKt&amp;domain=embed&amp;dynamicStreaming=true\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" swliveconnect=\"true\" allowscriptaccess=\"always\" pluginspage=\"http:\/\/www.macromedia.com\/shockwave\/download\/index.cgi?P1_Prod_Version=ShockwaveFlash\" \/><\/object><\/p>\n<h2>Life lessons<\/h2>\n<p>With an awareness that the medium is on its way out, has limited collector value, and an agreements that my moldy CDs were not fun, I pondered two questions as I piled my CDs into the bin:<\/p>\n<p><strong>1. Do you provide a product, a service, or meaningful value?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>If you are in business, do you sell CDs or do you provide happiness through music experiences?\u00a0 If the former, your value proposition is tied to the medium.\u00a0 If the latter, you will always be looking for new ways to fulfil your value proposition.<\/p>\n<p><strong>2. Are you investing in something you will throw out tomorrow?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I got into radio for the music, and my CD collection was a thing of beauty.\u00a0 My time spent sorting and caressing my musical mediums is now meaningless apart from immediate self-serving satisfaction.\u00a0 Throwing out my CDs has me asking what else I hang onto that I don\u2019t really need?\u00a0 What do we obsess on that will eventually end up in the trash?<\/p>\n<p>Music is about personal and shared experience, not about the disc.\u00a0 It is so easy to get caught up in our maintenance of the \u201cthings\u201d of life and lose sight of what we thought those things could bring.<\/p>\n<p>It is an important life lesson I will consider further, right after I sort my Xbox games by colour.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Queensland floods forced a decision on what I should do with my music CDs. \u00a0Market projections suggest the medium only has a few years&#8230; <a href=\"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/2012\/01\/predicting-the-demise-of-the-compact-disc-life-lessons-from-throwing-out-my-cds\/\" class=\"bwp-excerpt-more-link\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5416,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_s2mail":"","cybocfi_hide_featured_image":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[193,186],"tags":[34,76],"ecosystem_role":[],"class_list":["post-1318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-about-innovation-ecosystems","category-about-society","tag-consumerism","tag-ipswich-brisbane-2011-flood","bwp-masonry-item","bwp-col-3"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1318","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1318"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1318\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7641,"href":"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1318\/revisions\/7641"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5416"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1318"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1318"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1318"},{"taxonomy":"ecosystem_role","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/sidewaysthoughts.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ecosystem_role?post=1318"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}